Even though the housing market is no longer experiencing the frenzy that was so characteristic of the last couple of years, it doesn’t mean today’s market is at a standstill. In actuality, buyer traffic is still strong today.
The ShowingTime Showing Index is a measure of how much buyers are touring homes. The graph below uses that index to illustrate buyer activity trends over time to help put today into the proper perspective.
It shows there’s seasonality in real estate. If you look at the last normal years in the market (shown in gray), there was a consistent pattern as buyer activity peaked in the first half of each year (during the peak homebuying season in the spring) and slowed as each year came to a close.
When the pandemic hit in March of 2020, that trend was disrupted as the market responded to the resulting uncertainty (shown in blue in the middle). From there, we entered the ‘unicorn’ years of housing (shown in pink). This is when mortgage rates were record-low and buyer demand was sky high. Similar seasonal trends still existed even during that time, just at much higher levels.
Now, let’s look at 2023. Traffic is down from the previous month and it’s also lower than the peaks we saw in the ‘unicorn’ years. But what’s happening isn’t a steep drop off in demand – it’s a slow return toward more normal seasonality. As the ShowingTime report explains:
“Showing traffic declined about 10% in May . . . This follows a typical seasonal pattern – disrupted by the pandemic but now beginning to return . . .”
And, to highlight this isn’t a drastic decline, let’s zoom in. Here’s a graph using just the May data for the last five years. It shows just how strong buyer demand still is.
Buyers are still out there touring homes. They’re more active than they were in May 2022 (when sticker shock over higher mortgage rates started to set in) and certainly more than they were in the last normal years. So, remember, buyer activity is still strong. And it could actually be even stronger if it wasn’t constrained by the limited supply of homes for sale. According to U.S. News:
“Housing markets have cooled slightly, but demand hasn’t disappeared, and in many places remains strong largely due to the shortage of homes on the market.”
Don’t lose sight of just how active the market still is today. If your house isn’t on the market, it’s not getting in front of all those buyers who are looking to make a purchase right now. Connect with a real estate agent to start the process.
While the wild ride that was the ‘unicorn’ years of housing is behind us, today’s market is still competitive in many areas because the supply of homes for sale is still low. If you’re looking to buy a home this season, know that the peak frenzy of bidding wars is in the rearview mirror, but you may still come up against some multiple-offer scenarios.
Here are a few things to consider to help you put your best foot forward when making an offer on a home.
Rely on an agent who can support your goals and help you understand what’s happening in today’s housing market. Agents are experts in the local market and on the national trends too. They’ll use both of those areas of expertise to make sure you have all the information you need to move with confidence.
Plus, they know what’s worked for other buyers in your area and what sellers may be looking for in an offer. It may seem simple, but catering to what a seller needs can help your offer stand out. As an article from Forbes says:
“Getting to know a local realtor where you’re hoping to buy can also potentially give you a crucial edge in a tight housing market.”
Having a clear budget in mind is especially important right now given the current affordability challenges. The best way to get a clear picture of what you can borrow is to work with a lender so you can get pre-approved for a home loan.
That’ll help you be more financially confident because you’ll have a better understanding of your numbers. It shows sellers you’re serious, too. And that can give you a competitive edge if you do get into a multiple-offer scenario.
It’s only natural to want the best deal you can get on a home. However, submitting an offer that’s too low does have some risks. You don’t want to make an offer that will be tossed out as soon as it’s received just to see if it sticks. As Realtor.com explains:
“. . . an offer price that’s significantly lower than the listing price, is often rejected by sellers who feel insulted . . . Most listing agents try to get their sellers to at least enter negotiations with buyers, to counteroffer with a number a little closer to the list price. However, if a seller is offended by a buyer or isn’t taking the buyer seriously, there’s not much you, or the real estate agent, can do.”
The expertise your agent brings to this part of the process will help you stay competitive and find a price that’s fair to you and the seller.
During the ‘unicorn’ years of housing, some buyers skipped home inspections or didn’t ask for concessions from the seller in order to submit the winning bid on a home. An article from Bankrate explains this isn’t happening as often today, and that’s good news:
“While the market has largely calmed down since then, sellers are still very much in the driver’s seat in this era of scarce housing inventory. It’s not as common for buyers to waive inspections anymore, but it does still happen. . . . It’s in the buyer’s best interest to have a home inspected . . . Inspections alert you to existing or potential problems with the home, giving you not just an early heads up but also a useful negotiating tactic.”
Fortunately, today’s market is different, and you may have more negotiating power than before. When putting together an offer, your trusted real estate advisor will help you think through what levers to pull and which ones you may not want to compromise on.
When you buy a home this summer, be sure to work with a real estate advisor to make your best offer.
If you’re thinking of buying or selling a home, one of the biggest questions you have right now is probably: what’s happening with home prices? And it’s no surprise you don’t have the clarity you need on that topic. Part of the issue is how headlines are talking about prices.
They’re basing their negative news by comparing current stats to the last few years. But you can’t compare this year to the ‘unicorn’ years (when home prices reached record highs that were unsustainable). And as prices begin to normalize now, they’re talking about it like it’s a bad thing and making people fear what’s next. But the worst home price declines are already behind us. What we’re starting to see now is the return to more normal home price appreciation.
To help make home price trends easier to understand, let’s focus on what’s typical for the market and omit the last few years since they were anomalies.
Let’s start by talking about seasonality in real estate. In the housing market, there are predictable ebbs and flows that happen each year. Spring is the peak homebuying season when the market is most active. That activity is typically still strong in the summer but begins to wane as the cooler months approach. Home prices follow along with seasonality because prices appreciate most when something is in high demand.
That’s why, before the abnormal years we just experienced, there was a reliable long-term home price trend. The graph below uses data from Case-Shiller to show typical monthly home price movement from 1973 through 2021 (not adjusted, so you can see the seasonality):
As the data from the last 48 years shows, at the beginning of the year, home prices grow, but not as much as they do entering the spring and summer markets. That’s because the market is less active in January and February since fewer people move in the cooler months. As the market transitions into the peak homebuying season in the spring, activity ramps up, and home prices go up a lot more in response. Then, as fall and winter approach, activity eases again. Price growth slows, but still typically appreciates.
In the coming months, as the housing market moves further into a more predictable seasonal rhythm, you’re going to see even more headlines that either get what’s happening with home prices wrong or, at the very least, are misleading. Those headlines might use a number of price terms, like:
They’re going to mistake the slowing home price growth (deceleration of appreciation) that’s typical of market seasonality in the fall and winter and think prices are falling (depreciation). Don’t let those headlines confuse you or spark fear. Instead, remember it’s normal to see a deceleration of appreciation, slowing home price growth, as the months go by.
If you have questions about what’s happening with home prices in your area, connect with a trusted real estate professional.